Terrorist Activity in Saudi Arabia -
April 19, 2004 -- WITH local disturbances in Iraq dominating the
headlines, international opinion may be neglecting a potentially
more dangerous conflict in Saudi Arabia. This month alone at least
11 policemen and government security agents have been gunned down
by suspected Islamist terrorists. An undisclosed number of others
have been killed or wounded in almost daily armed clashes with what
the authorities describe as "a deviant movement" - a code name for
al Qaeda-style groups.
This wave of violence started last spring after a taped message
from Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's de facto leader, called on Islamists
to focus their energies on seizing power in the oil-rich kingdom.
A series of terrorist operations followed, including two major bomb
attacks that killed 52 people in the capital Riyadh in May and November
2003.
Al-Zawahiri's appeal was later spelled out in more detail last
September in a posthumously published book by Yussuf al-Ayyeri,
the al Qaeda chief ideologist who was killed in a gun-battle with
Saudi security men in June. Al-Ayyeri identified Iraq and Saudi
Arabia as "the final battlefields" in the war of Islam against "kufr"
(unbelief) represented by the United States.
Last spring, the United States decided to withdraw its forces from
the kingdom, in the hope that a U.S. military presence in the newly-liberated
Iraq suffice to ensure the security of the region. No one in Washington
imagined that the closing of Saudi bases could act as a signal for
the start of what now looks like a direct Islamist power grab in
Saudi Arabia.
After initial hesitations due to internal disagreements, the Saudi
leaders last year decided to hit back at the radicals.
Since then, dozens of alleged militants have been killed in more
than 80 engagements with the security forces. Among them were four
of al Qaeda's most notorious military commanders, including Khalid
al-Haj, a Yemeni regarded as the overall commander of the terror
movement in the Persian Gulf region. Almost 1,000 other militants
have been captured in a nationwide sweep against "the deviant movement"
in the past six months.
Until earlier this year, the Saudi authorities were adamant that
what they faced was a series of sporadic attacks undertaken by small
and isolated groups with no overall strategy. Now, however, they
admit that the kingdom is threatened by a well-organized and highly
motivated army of terrorists with the clear aim of toppling the
regime.
It is clear that the Islamists are fomenting what looks like a
low-intensity guerrilla struggle in pursuit of three goals:
The first of these is to terrorize the regime's coercive forces,
notably the police and the National Guard, that are in the front
line of the war against terror. The murders in Jeddah of several
policemen in February and March have set a pattern that has since
been repeated in Riyadh as well as the cities of Buraidah and Unizah
in the Najdi heartland.
The second aim is to create no-go areas for the security forces,
thus enabling the terrorists to establish safe havens and, later,
a number of "liberated zones." The militants seem to have focused
on the Qassim region, where the Hanbali brand of Sunni Islam is
strong. At least two remote spots in al-Shamsiyah and Um-Sadrah,
some 45 kilometers east of Buraidah, have been identified as logistics
points for terrorists.
The terror campaign's third aim is to disrupt the modest program
of political reform announced by Crown Prince Abdullah last year.
The program includes the holding of the kingdom's first-ever elections:
Though modest - limited to municipal councils - these could strengthen
the regime by broadening its support base.
The "deviant movement" is also unhappy about other developments,
including the creation of the first independent human-rights commission
in the kingdom and a systematic purging of school textbooks of anti-West
sentiments.
The Saudis have been surprised by the deep roots that the Islamists
had struck within some institutions, especially mosques and Koranic
schools. Although thousands of mosque preachers and Koranic teachers
have been purged in recent months, there is still evidence that
both institutions remain breeding grounds for recruiting and training
future militants.
No one knows how many militants may be involved in the current
war; figures cited by officials vary between 600 and 5,000. We do
know the terror movement has stocked its arsenal well: The police
have seized a wide variety of arms - including sophisticated surface-to-surface
and surface-to-air missiles.
It is also clear that the militants are well-funded. The Islamist
movement is supported by scores of charities, many of them directly
financed by the state, and apparently innocuous social, cultural
and religious associations. And the Saudi police (supported by the
American FBI) have uncovered dozens of front companies set up to
fund terror inside and outside the kingdom.
Having started their current campaign as a series of bomb attacks
designed to kill foreigners, especially Americans, the Islamist
terror movement in Saudi Arabia has now entered a new phase that
could only be described as a full-scale guerrilla campaign.
The terror leaders hope to frighten many Saudis into sending their
money abroad, thus aggravating the acute economic crisis that the
kingdom has suffered since the mid 1990s. They also hope that the
more opportunistic elements of society will either side with them
or, at least try to hedge their bets, by providing moral and financial
support for the terrorists on the sly.
Whatever happens in Iraq in the next few months will have a direct
impact on the current struggle for the control of Saudi Arabia.
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